Saturday, 08/23/2008 9:36 PM MDT
9PM MDT THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST AROUND THE PENINSULA NORTHWARD TO SAN EVARISTO ON THE EAST COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

9PM MDTTHE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF SANTA FE TO BAHIA MAGDALENA AND ON THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO TO LORETO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.. .GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

Recently upgraded Tropical Storm Julio (red arrow) which is now about 187 miles SSE of Cabo San Lucas and is moving NNW and is forecast to make landfall near Los Cabos and move across the peninsula to La Paz. Heavey rains will begin in Cabo San Lucas before midnight tonight. tropical storm force winds extend out 75 miles in the NE quadrant.
We have issued the first Special Insider Update to our subscribers regarding the Storm Watches & Warnings and will continue to email Updates as the storm status changes.
A new tropical Low (magenta arrow) has developed along the ITCZ, but the NHC has given that area little chance of development in the next 48hrs.
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03PM MDT THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST AROUND THE PENINSULA NORTHWARD TO BUENAVISTA ON THE EAST COAST.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS...

08/23/2008 2:59 PM MDT Tropical Depression 11E has not strengthend over the last six hours as it moves toward Baja Sur some 250 miles SSE of Cabo San Lucas. The system is forecast to become Tropical Storm Julio in the next 24hrs. Early projections forecast Julio to remain a tropical storm and move parallel to Baja, just west of our coast through the middle of next week.
Tropical Depression 11E is currently located near 19.5N 108.5W and is moving 315° at 10kts. Winds are estimated at 30 to 40 kts and central barometric pressure is 1007Mb. The current forecast calls for the system to strengthen to tropical storm strength as it moves along the west coast of the Baja peninsula. The system is forecast to be Tropical Storm Julio and be about 87 miles SSW of Cabo San Lucas tomorrow morning.

As we move into the second full week of August it is time for Baja residents to turn their attention to the weather. The Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season begins May 15, but the true threat period for Baja is the middle of August to the middle of October.
First let us take a look at the season so far. The pre-season predictions called for our hurricane season to deliver just about the average number of storms, but 2008 was forecast to deliver a season of lesser intensity. The forecast was for fewer major hurricanes (those of greater than Category 3) and that is exactly how the season has been progressing so far. Our first tropical cyclone took place right on the average date in the end of May. We had a very quiet June, right up to the End, when Boris became the first hurricane of the season, a first hurricane in late June was a bit behind average.
July seemed to be an active month, with our closest brush yet coming with Tropical Storm Douglas. Douglas was not destine for greatness from the beginning, but migrated north toward Cabo San Lucas on July 3. But at that time the 26°C thermo cline was still well south of our peninsula. Douglas dissipated about 150 miles south of Cabo and delivered a little rain to the southern most portions of the peninsula.
There are a number of factors that make the Baja tropical cyclone period only a fraction of the hurricane season. There are four factors which lead to the formation of tropical cyclones, water temp, still air, tropical waves and presence of water vapor. Here is Baja, all those factors seem to arrive just about… now.
The 26°C thermo cline is the important demarcation for tropical cyclone survival. These systems usually form in waters of 28°C and above. But critical to a cyclones action is that 26°mark. Once over water below that temperature, tropical cyclones usual dissipate rapidly. The 26° thermo cline encompassed the Sea of Cortez several weeks ago. All of the Sea has been capable of supporting cyclonic activity since mid July. But that doesn’t me we get one...
As of 08/09 the SST Anomaly shows that much of our Hurricane Birthing Region is just slightly above normal. This means that there is just a little more than a normal amount of energy stored in the surface of the ocean. This is just one of the ingredients in tropical cyclone formation. Hurricanes are natures engine for dissipating equatorial energy northward. Since there is more energy there, the odds go up.
Many of our storms wrap back on Baja from south west of the peninsula. This means two things must occur to bring storms back on Baja from the Pacific. First, the waters well south and to the SW of the peninsula must be above 26°C. Second, a flow from the SW must be established to drag the storm back NE against its natural tendencies. Low pressure systems, which tropical cyclones are the big daddies of, circulate counter-clockwise in the northern hemisphere. Like a spinning top, they naturally want to curve off to the west, away from us. When that strong SW flow develops, late in the hurricane season, these storms become more likely to make landfall in Baja.
That strong flow has not yet developed. But the passage of two systems of concentrated thunderstorms that developed off the coast of the mainland and passed across the tip of Baja, moving NW, showed the track is beginning to open. Storms that form in the area SW of Puerto Vallarta are the ones we need to watch as this flow develops.
The ITCZ or Inter Tropical Convergence Zone, is working north and the scope of the more powerful tropical waves moving west from Africa will soon be influencing our ‘hurricane birthing region’ in places where our tropical cyclones come from. Looking back down the pipeline, the next week is going to deliver at least two more chances for tropical cyclone formation with waves headed our way, the third and most eastern wave on the Surface Chart graphic is stimulating a tropical Low in the Atlantic. It is likely that, if a storm forms here, that the energy from this wave will be ‘used up’ and spare us a third tropical wave next week
The Low that forecasters thought had such high potential on 8/8 seems to have fizzled, but is still forecast to deepen over the next 24hrs. We should keep an eye on this one, even though it is undeveloped and very long way away. This area of disturbed weather is forecast to track along the SE coast of Mexico, and should it mature it could be a whole new game when it rounds Cabo Corrientes.
Now for the fun part, my prognostication for tropical cyclone formation in the week ahead. So far this year, I have had one glance into the crystal ball for the last week of May and I was right on. I think next week is going to bring us a tropical cyclone from this system currently south Manzanillo. I’m even going to go way out on a limb here, and say that this system is going to pass to the SW of Cabo, but close enough that we are going to get rain across the southern most portions of Baja California Sur. We need the rain. I’m not going to stop there though… I think a second system will be in the process of forming from an additional tropical wave by next weekend. My Ouija board doesn’t give me anymore details than that folks!
Until August 18th... Clear skies and fair winds.