Tropical Storm Henriette

Storm Track / SST °C

Information on Tropical Storm Henriette

09PM MDT 08/31/07 Tropical Storm Henriette continues to strengthen as it moves along the southern coast of Mexico. TS Henriette is currently located near 17.1N 102.1W about 145 miles west of Acapulco or about 644 miles southeast by east of Cabo San Lucas. Movement is 300° at 10kts. Central barometric pressure is estimated at 997 and winds are 45kts with gusts to 55kts. The exact threat to Baja California Sur will become more evident late Saturday or early Sunday when Henriette moves clear of the land interference affecting the NE side of the storm. Sunday Henriette will move NW of Cabo Corrientes and a better picture of where the storm is headed will occur. A Trof currently runs the length of the Sea of Cortez which could draw the storm more to the north, The most recent forecast revises the track slightly away from Baja Sur.

HENRIETTE STRENGTHENS A BIT...MOVING PARALLEL TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA TO MANZANILLO. TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 

   Baja California & Weather Summary & Tropical Storm Henriette

Surface Chart / Satellite IR

09PM MDT 08/31/07  Tropical Storm Henriette (red arrow) is the big news in the Eastern Pacific Basin. Now about 645 miles SE by east of Cabo San Lucas the storm is moving along the SW coast of mainland Mexico. We will begin to know a great deal more about the threat to Baja Sur from this storm once it moves NW of Cabo Corrientes late Saturday. A Trof (magenta arrow) runs the length of the Sea of Cortez into Arizona and could provide to pull Henriette more to the north. This system will bear close watch over the weekend. Gil (yellow arrow) is dissipating and moving off into the central Pacific. We have one tropical wave on our map (orange arrow) which will enter the Pacific basin in the next 24hrs. We have crystal clear skies in La Paz this evening.

   Baja California & Weather Summary & Tropical Storm Henriette

Surface Chart / Satellite IR

09PM MDT 08/31/07  Tropical Storm Henriette (red arrow) is the big news in the Eastern Pacific Basin. Now about 645 miles SE by east of Cabo San Lucas the storm is moving along the SW coast of mainland Mexico. We will begin to know a great deal more about the threat to Baja Sur from this storm once it moves NW of Cabo Corrientes late Saturday. A Trof (magenta arrow) runs the length of the Sea of Cortez into Arizona and could provide to pull Henriette more to the north. This system will bear close watch over the weekend. Gil (yellow arrow) is dissipating and moving off into the central Pacific. We have one tropical wave on our map (orange arrow) which will enter the Pacific basin in the next 24hrs. We have crystal clear skies in La Paz this evening.

   Baja California & Weather Summary & Tropical Storm Henriette

Surface Chart / Satellite IR

09PM MDT 08/31/07  Tropical Storm Henriette (red arrow) is the big news in the Eastern Pacific Basin. Now about 645 miles SE by east of Cabo San Lucas the storm is moving along the SW coast of mainland Mexico. We will begin to know a great deal more about the threat to Baja Sur from this storm once it moves NW of Cabo Corrientes late Saturday. A Trof (magenta arrow) runs the length of the Sea of Cortez into Arizona and could provide to pull Henriette more to the north. This system will bear close watch over the weekend. Gil (yellow arrow) is dissipating and moving off into the central Pacific. We have one tropical wave on our map (orange arrow) which will enter the Pacific basin in the next 24hrs. We have crystal clear skies in La Paz this evening.

Tropical Storm Henriette

Storm Track / SST °C

Information on Tropical Storm Henriette

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING TO MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA TO MANZANILLO. TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO CABO CORRIENTES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM JUST WEST OF MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

Information on Tropical Storm Henriette
09AM MDT 08/31/07 Tropical Storm Henriette continues to strengthen as it moves along the southern coast of Mexico. TS Henriette is currently located near 15.7N 100.1W about 85 miles south of Acapulco or about 800 miles Southeast by East of Cabo San Lucas. Movement is 300° at 9kts. Central barometric pressure is estimated at 1001 and winds are 40kts with gusts to 50kts. TS Henriette is forecast to move along the SW coast of Mexico for the next couple of days, then turn more NNW, passing just SW of Cabo San Lucas late Monday night.
 

   Baja California & Weather Summary & Tropical Storm Henriette

Surface Chart / Satellite IR

10AM MDT 08/31/07  Tropical Storm Gil (magenta arrow) is slowly fading away as it moves west harmlessly off into the Pacific. we have a new system to watch, Tropical Storm Henriette, now 85 miles south of Acapulco or 800 miles SE by East of Cabo San Lucas, the storm is forecast to run along the SW coast of Mexico then turn to the NW. Early long range predictions put Henriette just SW of Cabo San Lucas late Monday or early Tuesday as a Category 1 Hurricane. We will be following this story closely with updates to this and the TS Henriette page increasing as the system draws closer to Baja Sur. Baja California will enjoy mostly clear skies today and seasonable temperatures while Baja Sur will have a few clouds, a result of tropical moisture drifting west from the mainland. Scatter thunderstorms are possible this afternoon.

   Baja California & Weather Summary & Tropical Storm Gil / TD 11E

Surface Chart / Satellite IR

04PM MDT 08/30/07  Tropical Storm Gil continues to move harmlessly out into the Pacific and is expected to dissipate over the weekend. Meanwhile, Tropical Depression 11E has formed some 265 miles SE of Acapulco. The storm is forecast to follow the southern coast of Mexico over the weekend. Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for much of the southern coast of Mexico. The system is currently forecast to strengthen to a Cat1 Hurricane and pass just south of Cabo San Lucas early next week. We will be keeping a close eye on the path of this storm. Baja Sur is experiencing the threat of rain and thunderstorms this afternoon as a result of tropical moisture (yellow arrow) moving west from the mainland. We have just one tropical wave (orange arrow) in our basin at this time and that is stimulating TD11E.

   Baja California & Eastern Pacific Tropical  Weather Summary

Surface Chart / Satellite IR

10AM MDT 08/29/07 Tropical Depression 10E (red arrow) has formed some 250 miles south by southeast of Cabo San Lucas. Forecasts call for the system to strengthen to become Tropical Storm Gil later today. Forecasts call for the storm to move harmlessly off WNW into the Pacific and over cooler waters. A Trof (yellow arrow) still runs the length of the Sea of Cortez and could influence the storm to a more northward path. Another system (magenta arrow) off the southern coast of Mexico is also showing signs of strengthening. A tropical wave (orange arrow) will stimulate additional activity as it moves into the basin in the next 24hrs. Light rain is currently reported in Cabo San Lucas and partly cloudy skies in La Paz. Baja California will experience partly cloudy skies as a result of circulation in California.  Central Baja should have mostly clear skies.

   Baja California & Eastern Pacific Tropical  Weather Summary

Surface Chart / Satellite IR

00AM MDT 08/29/07 We are going to keep an eye on a deepening Low (red arrow) some 300 miles SE of Cabo San Lucas. Forecasts are favorable for the system to become a tropical cyclone in the next 48hrs as it moves to the WNW. The influence of a Trof (yellow arrow) that runs the length of the Sea of Cortez to a Low in AZ (blue arrow) may influence the northward motion of the system. The system is forecast to move north of the Socorro Islands. Due to the location of the storm formation and the time of year, Baja residents should remain aware of the progress of this system. Although it is likely that the best Baja Sur can hope for is a little rain, the rate of intensification of this system could influence our weather later in the week. We have one additional tropical wave about to enter the Pacific Basin as well as another developing Low (magenta arrow) that is forecast to move more westerly off into the Pacific.. 

   Baja California & Eastern Pacific Tropical  Weather Summary

Surface Chart / Satellite IR

10AM MDT 08/25/07 Central Baja will have crystal clear skies while Baja California and Baja Sur will have some scattered clouds from separate systems. Baja California's clouds come from a warm front moving ashore in California while Baja Sur's clouds come from moisture drifting over from the mainland that will bring a slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms. Down south we have two areas to watch as a result of tropical waves (orange arrows) the western most is causing the development of a tropical low (magenta arrow) but further development is not anticipated at this time. The eastern more wave is expected to continue to deepen  and develop into a tropical low in the next 48 hrs. Both lows are less intense than the onshore pair of lows (green arrow) stimulating thunderstorms over the mainland.

   Baja California & Eastern Pacific Tropical  Weather Summary

Surface Chart / Satellite IR

10AM MDT 08/25/07 Partly cloudy skies and the chance of afternoon thunderstorms will range from the US border to Cabo San Lucas today as a result of the departing remains of Hurricane Dean, (yellow arrow) which now stretch into Texas. There is a thermal Low (green arrow) over the Sonoran desert that will probably spawn evening thunderstorms on the eastern side of The Sea which could drift westward over night. We have two tropical waves on our map (orange arrows) the western most has formed a tropical Low, near the Tehuantepec, and is forecast to continue to deepen over the next three days - we will be keeping an eye on this one as the week progresses. The second wave, just entering the map, is also forecast to stimulate a tropical Low early in the week although weather models prefer further development in the first system, this will also have our attention.

   Baja California & Eastern Pacific Tropical  Weather Summary

Surface Chart / Satellite IR

06PM MDT 08/23/07 The remains of Hurricane Dean (red arrow) are now a depression and will move NNW along the Sea of Cortez side Baja Sur beginning this evening. Some significant periods of rain and winds of 30-40kts are associated with the system which should begin affecting the East Cape area this evening. The system will continue up the peninsula tonight, through La Paz and the central valley areas. Dean is not expected to regenerate cyclonic conditions, but residents should be prepared for strong winds and the potential for periods of heavy rain. We have two tropical waves on our map (orange arrows) the western most of which will move into an area of heavy thunderstorms (blue arrow) in the next 24-36hrs and will bear watching.

   Baja California & Eastern Pacific Tropical  Weather Summary

Surface Chart / Satellite IR

12PM MDT 08/22/07 Baja California Sur will have some scattered clouds and a slight chance of afternoon thundershowers as a result of moisture drifting west from the mainland. Baja California should be mostly clear and seasonal today. We have one tropical wave on our map (orange arrow) too far west to concern us. Hurricane Dean will make landfall today along the east coast of Mexico near Veracruz, only as a Category 2 storm and move inland, dissipating quickly. The remains of the storm are forecast to move NW (magenta arrow) and follow a Trof (yellow arrow) up the Sea of Cortez. At this time we may just be lucky to get a little rain out of the system. Click here to read how Dean may affect Baja Sur.Click here to read how Dean may affect Baja Sur.

   Baja California & Tropical  Weather Summary

Surface Chart / Satellite IR

09PM MDT 08/20/07 The weekend clouds and occasional drizzle that dampened the weekend have cleared out and the entire peninsula should enjoy clear skies and seasonal temperatures. There will be a slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms in Baja Sur. A Tropical Low (yellow arrow) that helped draw that moisture from the mainland is dissipating over cooler waters. We have one tropical eave on our map (orange arrow) but very little moisture in hurricane birthing zone to generate a storm. Category 4 Hurricane Dean (red arrow) is now on our map and is forecast to make landfall in the Yucatan late tonight as a Category 5 storm. Click here to read how Dean may affect Baja Sur.

   Baja California & Tropical  Weather Summary

Surface Chart / Satellite IR

11AM MDT 08/13/07 A quiet map for us today Last night La Paz had a spectacular lightning show to the north, but no rain. From Espiritu Santos north did receive some brief and sometimes heavy rain that migrated west from the mainland (magenta arrow). There is a thermal Low over Sinaloa. (blue arrow) We have three tropical waves on our map, (orange arrows) the western most is finding dry air. The second wave is forecast to stimulate a tropical Low about 72hrs from now. That system is forecast to move in the direction of Baja and we will be watching these developments. The ridge of High pressure that has protected Baja for the last 4-5 weeks may now trap this system to the east, in our direction. We will know more later in the week.

   Baja California & Tropical  Weather Summary

Surface Chart / Satellite IR

11AM MDT 08/11/07 Hurricane Flossie is far off our map to the west, moving into the Central Pacific basin. Another tropical Low (yellow arrow) is being stimulated by one of two tropical waves (orange arrows) on our map. The NHC thinks development if any, will be slow to occur. The system is well east of the Baa threat zone anyway. The eastern most of the two tropical waves is one of three about to march through our basin. Thunderstorms south of Acapulco are not forecast to develop with this wave, but the NHC is forecasting the next to spawn a tropical Low and perhaps more in 72hrs. A strong ridge of High pressure extends SE from a High in the Pacific. This ridge is expected to strengthen and push even further SE in the next 72hrs. This should continue to protect Baja from tropical cyclones for the immediate future.

   Baja California & Tropical  Weather Summary

Surface Chart / Satellite IR

10AM MDT 08/08/07 A busy map to day and the tip of Baja Sur could get some rain and thunderstorms from moisture moving west from the mainland (magenta arrow) The center of this system, which is being stimulated by one of three tropical waves on our map (orange arrows) The center of the system is south of Baja, there is some chance of further development of this system as it moves quickly to the west. This heavy moist air has cause a retreat of the 1012Mb isobar (lt blue arrow) and Baja Sur will see an increase in humidity. A Trof (dk blue arrow) is drawing this moisture up into the Sea towards the root Low (green arrow) over California. Baja California, on the other hand should enjoy clear skies and seasonable temperatures.

   Baja California & Tropical  Weather Summary

Surface Chart / Satellite IR

01PM MDT 08/01/07 The High pressure more than 1000 miles west of Baja (blue arrow) is still providing a ridge that is keeping most of Baja clear, dry and slightly cooler than normal. A thermal Low (dk blue arrow) over the mainland should draw in some thunderstorms of the eastern side of The Sea. We only have one tropical wave on our map, stimulating some thunderstorms (yellow arrow) the NHC was more aggressive about it's development yesterday, but it will still have favorable conditions for development as it moves west off into the Pacific. In 72hrs we will have two fresh tropical waves moving into the basin, with sufficient time since Dalila's passing that we will watch for development.