Tuesday, 07/22/2008 9:57
MDT Tropical Storm Fausto (magenta arrow) is headed into cooler waters today, and is forecast to weaken to dissipate over the next 48hrs.Tropical Storm Genevieve (red arrow) is about 326 SSW of Manzanillo, Mexico and is forecast to slowly strengthen over the next several days as it moves harmlessly off into the Pacific. After TS Genevieve passes out of our basin, we may have a few days off between tropical cyclones.

A few clouds are going to drift west over Baja today (yellow arrow) but mostly sunny skies are in the forecast for the entire peninsula, after some coastal gray burns off in Pacific areas. Winds in the Sea are forecast to be light and variable through the forecast period, predominately from the SW. It will be warm and humid in Baja Sur today, be sure to stay hydrated.

On the Caribbean side, TS Dolly (white arrow) is poised to hit the southern Texas coast in the next 36hrs. Dolly is forecast to continue to strengthen, but at this time is only forecast to be a Category 1 Hurricane at the time of landfall.

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Sunday, 07/20/2008 9:46MDT Hurricane Fausto (magenta arrow) is probably on its last legs today, as it heads for cooler waters WSW of Cabo San Lucas. The hurricane maintained strength through the night, but is expected to diminish to a tropical storm by tomorrow morning.

In Baja, temperatures will be a little warmer across the map, by a degree or two. A band of clouds, (yellow arrow) is moving across the peninsula and will bring high clouds to the central portions of Baja today. With the rain in Baja Sur on Friday, expect humidity to be significantly higher for the next fw days. The southern most Pacific parts of Baja Sur may see some coulds as a result of Fausto passing some 350 miles to the south. Winds in the Sea will be light and variable except in local conditions through Tuesday, winds will pick up from the W to 10kts.

Further south we have a system that is forecastto develop today. (red arrow) The conditions are ripe to generate a tropical depression and preliminary projections have the system following a track very similar to Fausto later in the week.

09AM MDT 07/01/08 A beautiful warm day across the peninsula today, with the exception of a few clouds (yellow arrow) which will drift over central Baja today. Winds in the Sea are forecast to be light, under 10kts from the south to SW through the forecast period.
The Eastern Pacific has it's first hurricane of 2008, Boris surprised the forecasters and achieve hurricane status last night. Hurricane Category 1 status is expected to be short lived however, as Boris should begin to diminish later today as it moves over colder waters.
A new systems looks like it will spin up to be our next tropical cyclone (magenta arrow) This system may become a tropical depression later today. It is currently forecast to move in a NW direction, bringing it closer to Baja than previous storms this season.
Right behind that, is another tropical wave (orange arrow) that is also showing signs of development. There are four additional tropical waves moving across the southern Caribbean at the moment. None of them have much potential for development in the Atlantic basin, so it is likely that all will make it to our basin in the next 10 days.
It could be a busy next few weeks in the Eastern Pacific Basin. Storms in July have come close enough to the peninsula to deliver rain and a little 'weather'. But the waters surrounding Baja are still too cold to support cyclonic activity and the earliest a tropical cyclone has made landfall in baja in Aug 15th.

Labels: baja california weather cabo la paz tijuana ensenada mexico