Tuesday, September 18, 2007
Tropical Depression 12E 3PM MDT 09/18/07
Information on Tropical Depression 12E
03PM MDT 09/18/07 Tropical Depression 12E continues to strengthen as it moves NW about 635 miles south by southeast of Cabo San Lucas. The current estimated position is 13.8N 108.4W and movement is 295° at 10kts. Central barometric pressure is estimated at 1006Mb and winds are 30kts with gusts to 40kts.
TD12E is originating in an area usually considered too far away from the mainland and too far south to be a threat to Baja Sur. However, current forecasts call for the storm to turn to the NE over the weekend and head in the direction of Baja Sur at the end of the five day forecast. The system is currently forecast to become a Tropical Storm on Wednesday and begin turning dramatically more northward on Thursday. Turns against the rotational direction of a tropical cyclone usually reduce the intensity of the storm. However, once the system completes the turn in the direction of Baja Sur it will still be over water warm enough to support regeneration. Forecasts for the system do not extend beyond five days and this is very early in the storms formation. If current forecast models do hold true this system would not effect Baja weather until early next week.
