Saturday, October 01, 2005

Update from the NHC on Hurricane Otis

...OTIS WEAKENS SOME BUT
RESUMES A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE
PACIFIC
COAST
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SAN
ANDRESITO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.


A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...ON EITHER SIDE OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS
SOUTHWARD TO NORTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO...AND FROM SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA
SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS.


A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM
SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT WATCH ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
FROM NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE.


A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.


INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR
BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND

NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS.


FOR STORM INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


AT 2 PM PDT...2100Z...THE
CENTER OF HURRICANE OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 111.9
WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES... 230 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ABOUT 195 MILES... 315 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN
LAZARO
MEXICO.


OTIS IS MOVING ERRATICALLY
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH... 6 KM/HR. A SLOW MOTION GENERALLY TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF OTIS IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


HOWEVER... ANY MOTION TO THE
RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
TONIGHT OR ONSUNDAY.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  85 MPH...140
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  OTIS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE.  SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... BUT OTIS
COULD STILL REACH THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AS A HURRICANE.


HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO  25 MILES... 35 KM... FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES... 165 KM.  HOWEVER... WINDS WILL BE
STRONGER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.


ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS  982 MB...29.00 INCHES. OTIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AND 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA SUNDAY AND
MONDAY... WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE
CENTRAL
BAJA
PENINSULA
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH OTIS COULD AFFECT THE

SOUTHWESTERN U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK.


REPEATING THE 2 PM PDT
POSITION...22.0 N...111.9 W. MOVEMENT


TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 3 MPH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH.


MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...
982 MB.


AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY
WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE


CENTER AT 5 PM PDT FOLLOWED
BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT

8 PM


PDT.


 

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