Friday, September 30, 2005

Tropical Storm Warnings Expanded

At 9PM MDT the National Hurricane Center issued the following release:


...OTIS SLOWS AND STRENGTHENS...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA..

AT 8 PM PDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ABREOJOS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS
SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THIS AREA ON THE NEXT ADVISORY

AT 8 PM PDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ON THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO SAN EVARISTO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVARISTO
SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS


AT 8 PM PDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO NORTHWARD TO LORETO


A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS


FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND
WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE

AT 8 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.4 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES... 205 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ABOUT 220 MILES... 355 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO.

OTIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER... ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OTIS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND OTIS COULD BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM. HOWEVER... WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...A 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND SPEED OF 43 MPH...69 KM/HR... AND A GUST TO 50 MPH...81 KM/HR WERE REPORTED AT CABO SAN LUCAS AT A HEIGHT OF 735 FT...224 METERS ABOVE SEA LEVEL.


ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB...28.85 INCHES.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY... AND SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY.

REPEATING THE 8 PM PDT POSITION...21.7 N...111.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 977 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 2 AM PDT.


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